It's interesting to see the lack of faith oddsmakers have in how adept they believe the NBA and Commissioner David Stern will be in running the New Orleans Hornets, the team the NBA currently owns.
To accurately compare last year's season wins in an 82-game schedule to this year's reduced 66-game slate, it is easiest to compare winning percentages. In the season wins forecast the oddsmakers have put out, the Hornets have the biggest drop in projected winning percentage of any team. Close to the Hornet's downturn is that of Charlotte behind the leadership of Michael Jordan who drafted UConn stud guard Kemba Walker to potentially give the Bobcats' the shortest starting backcourt since the 1993 Celtics, who went 32-50. The aging San Antonio Spurs finished third from the bottom in comparing last year's regular season record to this season's projected wins as they went from a 74.4% season to a projected 61.4% winning percentage.
Conversely, the team projected as having the biggest improvement is the recipient of the David Stern-approved trade of Chris Paul, the Los Angeles Clippers, at almost a 15-game adjusted 82-game schedule improvement, or a 22.4% uptick in their winning percentage. The next two teams with the biggest season wins improvement are the long suffering Minnesota Timberwolves and the New York Knicks. The addition of former Dallas Maverick center Tyson Chandler has caused Knicks fans to get as excited as they did in 1991 when UNLV Rebel Greg Anthony was drafted by New York in the first round. With point guard Ricky Rubio from Spain finally joining the Timberwolves along with University of Arizona standout draftee Derrick Williams, Minnesota has aspirations of a big improvement in spite of the ineptitude of GM David Kahn.
Youth and depth are going to be bigger factors this year than ever before. There are more than three times as many occasions of a squad playing four games in five days this season than there was last season. This is happening with 16 less games per team, over 240 fewer games total, this season thanks to the strike.
For Dallas Mavs fans, don't place any futures bet for the Mavs to win it all as your best defensive player, Tyson Chandler, is gone as is your sparkplug off the bench, J.J. Barea. But, for TMZ fans there should be a Kardashian showing nightly with Lamar Odom now a Maverick.
A season wins total that might appeal to Vegas locals is to bet the OVER 18.5 season wins for Sacramento, the team owned by the Maloofs. Comparing winning percentages, this is actually almost a full game lower than the Kings won last year. The Kings finished strong late last season and don't have the controversy this year of leaving Sac-Town for greener pastures. Oh, and they have rookie Jimmer Fredette from BYU popping threes.
The young Oklahoma City Thunder and the Miami Heat look like the best choice for the NBA Finals. Challengers would be the revamped Clippers with three new starters in the West and the Chicago Bulls in the East. Teams that will surprise are the vastly improved Indiana Pacers and the afore mentioned Timberwolves. Disappointments will be the Los Angeles Lakers, who dramatically need an improvement at point guard, and the one-year older Boston Celtics, already depth-shy and who lost forward Jeff Green recently due to a heart condition.
